Economics experts are predicting the release of the iPhone 5 could have profound effects on the US economy. J.P. Morgan’s chief U.S economist Michael Feroli has estimated that sales of Apple’s latest offering could add something in the region of a quarter to half a percentage point fourth quarter economic growth.
A strong phone or a weak economy?
The figures have been crunched meticulously by JPM’s equity analysts. During the final quarter of 2012, Apple is likely to sell 8 million iPhone 5s. At approximately $600 per unit ($400 if $200 of imported components are excluded), sales are set to add around one quarter to one half of a percentage point to the U.S economy’s stuttering growth rate. In hard cash, that translates into $3.2 billion for the last three months or $12.8 billion for a full year.
The news is likely to bring cheer to mobile advertising agencies throughout the country and beyond – it’s not often that a single gadget promises to catalyze the mobile phone advertising business in a single bound. Even so, while such a boon to the economy is to be welcomed, other voices are sounding a note of caution about the forecast says about the state of the country’s purse.
BTIG’s chief global strategist Dan Greenhaus said, “There’s no doubt that Apple are going to sell millions of these things. But it underscores how weak the economy is that we even care about the possible impact of a quarter percentage boost to the economy.”
Enhanced advertising opportunities?
Beyond the economic speculations, however, mobile advertising executives agree that the anticipated enlarged screen size on the iPhone 5 (reputed to be 14 per cent bigger than its predecessor) may in itself open the door to new marketing opportunities. Silverpop’s VP of Industry Relations, Loren McDonald said that, although the new screen size isn’t a “huge increase”, marketers using emails and landing pages will be “a little less constrained”, so that they can add additional content without requiring the iPhone user to scroll the page.
McDonald also believes the rumored improvements to the phone’s camera may encourage some advertisers to implement realtime and crowd-sourced ad campaigns as well as social photo contests, all of which will benefit from the faster upload and download speeds afforded by the new 4G connectivity.